Can the current eVTOL industry deliver on its promises? By Aditya Juluru

On July 6, with the stroke of a Sharpie, the world witnessed the United States government bet big on what was seen as a niche and unproven aerospace technology. President Trump and the White House issued an Executive Order calling for the accelerated commercialization of drones and the technology in question: electric Vehicle Takeoff and Landing (eVTOL). The government seems optimistic, with the order affirming that “Emerging technologies such as electric Vertical Takeoff and Landing (eVTOL) aircraft promise to modernize methods for cargo delivery, passenger transport, and other advanced air mobility capabilities”. eVTOL proponents claim the technology can revolutionize air travel by providing a sustainable solution to traffic congestion, while also filling the role of what many helicopters can do today. With newfound government support, the industry is sure to attract more investment as well. But behind all this excitement is one glaring question: Can ambition alone truly lift this industry off the ground? 

Earlier this year in February, the narrative was much different – the eVTOL industry was shaken by a reminder of the many obstacles that lie ahead. German eVTOL manufacturer Lilium filed for insolvency for the second time on February 21st, marking the collapse of a company once seen as one of Europe’s most promising aerospace ventures. This came after the collapse of a €200 million (~ $235.5 million) deal that was set to rescue the company after its initial insolvency filing in October 2024. Other companies, such as Volocopter, have also filed for insolvency (although it has since been acquired by Diamond Aircraft, a subsidiary of Wanfeng Aviation Industry Co., Ltd.), and companies like Kittyhawk have ceased operations entirely. 

Could the recent failures of eVTOL aircraft be due to the fact that existing technology has not caught up with the ambitious designs promised by manufacturers? That might as well be the case. Part of Lilium’s failure can be attributed to unrealistic technical claims. The design of Lilium’s aircraft featured approximately 36 ducted fans alongside its wings, which required 1.2 megawatts of power to lift off, according to ex-employees speaking to Forbes. That same article revealed 1.2 megawatts is approximately the same amount of power that passes through a Boeing 787, an aircraft that dwarfs the size of Lilium’s eVTOL aircraft. This obviously raised serious concerns about the aircraft’s efficiency. 

In addition, current battery technology further limits the efficiency of existing eVTOL aircraft. Compared to ground electric vehicles, eVTOL aircraft require more versatile batteries that can handle short bursts of heightened power and rapid discharge sequences during hovering and ascent procedures. These batteries must also be able to cruise for extended periods of time, meaning they need to be extremely efficient. There exists a tradeoff when it comes to these types of batteries: energy density for power density or vice versa. 

Energy density refers to how efficiently a battery stores energy relative to its size, which dictates the aircraft’s maximum range. Power density refers to how quickly a battery can supply power to the aircraft, which can influence payload capacity and overall hovering capabilities of an eVTOL. However, there is currently no battery that can effectively supply the best of both concepts. An example of a tradeoff is best summed up in a study by an Oak Ridge National Laboratory research team, where “High-energy density systems often sacrifice power density due to transport constraints, highlighting the need for innovative battery designs that strike a more effective balance between these characteristics”. The best energy-dense batteries are currently too small to satisfy the demand of current eVTOL aircraft, while the best power-dense batteries are too big and bulky. Progress on battery technology has been made, but as researcher Marm Dixit put it, “This is a question we don’t know the answer to… yet.” Beyond the technical challenges in developing these batteries, there are also significant financial and environmental concerns in mass-producing these batteries for future eVTOL fleets. 

Some other factors that could hinder eVTOL growth include, but are not limited to: slow Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) approval times, existing strain on Air Traffic Control (ATC) systems or the need for a new ATC system to handle eVTOL traffic, additional infrastructure possibly needed across cities (if existing helipads are not an option), public perception (something Volocopter struggled with in its Paris 2024 Olympic air taxi fail), and the high financial costs associated with research and development. 

The previous and current technical setbacks have not stopped all of the industry, and there are signs that eVTOL has still made progress despite its failures. American manufacturers Joby and Archer Aviation both completed initial flight demonstrations in the UAE, with both planning to launch air taxi services in the region (Joby in Dubai, and Archer in Abu Dhabi). 

Joby has been aggressively pursuing Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) approval, obtaining a Part 141 certificate in December 2024. This allows Joby to deliver their own pilot training and serves as a pipeline for more pilots in their air taxi system. Joby also claims to be the first company to complete 3 out of the 5 stages of FAA type certification – the process that validates the safety of the aircraft – and is “more than 40 percent complete” with the fourth stage. 

Archer Aviation is also working towards FAA type and production certification, and has already secured several maintenance and operator certificates from the FAA. Archer was also selected to provide air taxi services for the Los Angeles Olympics in 2028, which is why FAA certifications are needed quickly. 

Meanwhile, China’s EHang has been the world’s first company to obtain type, airworthiness, and production certificates for pilotless eVTOL aircraft (granted by the Civil Aviation Administration of China). This allows EHang to begin mass-production of its aircraft and conduct large-scale passenger operations. 

Although a lot of technological, legal, and financial issues remain, the industry still holds tremendous future upside. eVTOL aircraft will most likely not achieve widespread success in the next couple of years, but with enough support and time, we might see extended use of the technology in the coming decades. 

At EcoAero, we support sustainable aviation goals, but we also understand that these goals need to be practical and provide a wide range of benefits. Even if the passenger eVTOL industry has its problems and ideas are currently impractical, the research and development knowledge gained can drive innovation across other industries such as freight, emergency response, agriculture and defense. Only time will tell whether today’s eVTOL industry has what it takes to develop the technology needed for future success, but one thing is for certain: The ambition of eVTOL is here to stay – for the decades to come. 

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